In that brief moment, he reads the seam, judges the length, decides what to do, and plays the shot. If he waits until he's completely sure, it's too late.
He's making quick decisions, one ball after another.
Over the years, while teaching finance and researching markets, I've noticed the same pattern in investing, exams, and careers.
Forty-Second Boyd
Boyd flew fighter jets for the US Air Force in the 1950s. People called him “Forty-Second Boyd” because he claimed he could beat any opponent in a practice dogfight within 40 seconds, even if he started at a disadvantage.
He almost always did.
The four steps mattered, but speed made the difference. The person who moves through the loop faster gains the advantage.
Boyd's idea changed the way the US military thinks about combat. But it isn't just useful in war. The same principle shows up all the time in finance and in many other parts of life.
The Oil Whipsaw of 2026
Markets offered a perfect example of the OODA Loop earlier this year.
Investors had to keep adjusting. They watched prices move, figured out whether the jump was a lasting supply problem or a short-term spike, made decisions, and then repeated the process as the market changed again.
Many investors hesitate instead. They wait for one more data point, one more expert opinion, or one more confirmation before making a move. Markets don't wait. By the time they finally act, prices have already adjusted, and the opportunity has often passed.
Boyd warned against exactly this kind of delay.
Markets aren't the only place I see this loop. I run it every time I teach.
In a live class, a student suddenly asks a question, either out loud or in the Zoom chat. Within seconds, I have to understand what they're really asking, connect it to the right concept, choose an analogy that will make sense to that particular batch, and answer.
After teaching the same subjects for years, I can often sense a doubt before the student has fully asked it. I've heard similar questions from earlier batches, and I know how one topic connects to the next.
That instinct is the OODA Loop repeated so many times that it no longer feels like separate steps.
The Machines That Live in the Loop
In 2024, algorithmic trading made up more than half of all trades in the NSE cash market. It has since crossed 55%, while in derivatives it's close to 70%.
Some firms even rent server space within the exchange to shave a few microseconds off the time between seeing a price change and placing an order.
These systems run the OODA Loop thousands of times every second. Students often ask if that makes analysts irrelevant. It doesn't. No human can match a machine's speed, so there's no point trying.
Acting quickly without understanding the situation simply leads to faster mistakes. That's why SEBI has cracked down on manipulative high-speed practices such as spoofing.
The real advantage comes from understanding businesses better than others.
A machine may place the trade first, but it still can't judge what a company is truly worth over the next five years. That's why I keep bringing students back to the fundamentals.
The Students Who Get Stuck in “Observe”
I've seen this for years, and it isn't limited to markets.
What helps instead is learning how to separate useful information from noise. Once you have enough to make a reasonable decision, move.
The outcome — whether good or bad — gives you new information for the next round, and that's how progress is made.
Learning to Decide Without Certainty
The OODA Loop teaches you how to make sound decisions even when you do not have all the answers.
No investor ever has complete information about a company, and that is normal.
“You'll never know everything” doesn't mean you should rush. But it also doesn't mean you should research forever.
Focus on the few factors that really drive a business, and research those deeply within a limit you set in advance. For example, decide how many years of annual reports you'll read or how many earnings call transcripts you'll go through. Then form your view.
Without a clear boundary, analysis can go on forever, and you never make a decision.
This isn't a shortcut. Focusing on the key drivers still means doing deep research. The difference is that the research has a clear endpoint.
And once you form a view, don't treat it as final. Every quarterly result or major event is a chance to check your thesis against reality and update it. You don't have to start from scratch each time.
Start Here
Think about one decision you've been delaying. It could be a stock you've been researching, a course you've wanted to start, or a job you still haven't applied for.
Ask yourself one question. Do you really need more information, or are you just delaying the decision?
Now go through the OODA Loop once. Start with the facts you have, set aside the noise, make a decision, and take the next step.
Do you want to be someone, or do you want to do something?
John Boyd often asked that question. I think it is still worth asking. Progress comes from making a decision, learning from what happens, and trying again.
Invest in yourself,
Aswini Bajaj